Gridiron Challenge: Week 10 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Each week, Tristan H. Cockcroft offers his strategies for the Gridiron Challenge game. Look for his best and worst matchups every Thursday. Bye Weeks: Buccaneers, Jets, Patriots, Texans
The Tom Brady Conundrum
Seeing the Patriots in the list of bye-week teams isn't a pleasant sight for any Brady owner, and especially not those who snatched him up dirt cheap early in the season. If you "got in the ground floor" on Brady -- i.e., have been riding him since Week 1 -- you've got him locked in at a cozy 6.2, well beneath his current 8.0 price tag. That leaves you in a tough spot; do you stick with a dirt-cheap Brady to preserve precious salary-cap dollars the final seven weeks of the season, or do you finally let him go, refusing to accept a zero? I'd use the latter strategy. Keep in mind the average team in the Gridiron Challenge gets 8.36 points per position per week, but that includes tight end, kicker and defense. A good quarterback gives you something in the teens or better. Can you afford to lose that in Brady's bye week? In addition, look at his matchups coming out of the bye: He gets an easy one at Buffalo in Week 11, but then he plays the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers. Not that I'm saying Brady will go in the tank statistically, but he'll be hard-pressed to offer you numbers worthy of an 8.0 price tag in Weeks 12-14. Let him go.
Matchups I Like
Drew Brees, QB, Saints (STL, 7.2 price tag): The Drew Brees we've witnessed the past four weeks is very much the Drew Brees who ranked among fantasy's biggest stars in 2006; he has averaged 311.5 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception during that span. One must wonder, where was this the first five weeks? Everyone back on the Brees bandwagon! These Rams allowed 443 yards and five scores through the air the past two weeks combined, so expect another stellar effort from him. Jesse Chatman, RB, Dolphins (BUF, 4.5): Taking into account how sorry the field conditions were in London, that Chatman managed 100 total yards in Week 8 is a pretty decent performance in his first career start. Back in the States, he should fare much better on a more suitable playing surface, in a home game. He's about the only trustworthy offensive weapon the Dolphins have right now, and the Bills are a below-average run D. Lee Evans, WR, Bills (@MIA, 5.0): He has 19 receptions for 401 yards and two scores the past three weeks, and since J.P. Losman took over under center in the third quarter of the Week 8 game, he has 11 catches, 269 yards and both scores, and has been targeted on 16 of Losman's 39 pass attempts. Even better: In three career games at Dolphin Stadium in Miami, Evans has 11 receptions for 246 yards and five touchdowns. Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks (SF, 7.0): He already has one standout performance against the 49ers this season, throwing for 281 yards and two scores in Week 4. In his career against them, he has 19 touchdown passes in 11 games, by far his most against any one opponent. Plus, Hasselbeck has averaged 42 pass attempts in the team's past three games, a sign his workload is increasing due to Shaun Alexander's struggles. Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers (CLE, 5.6): He has 22 receptions for 379 yards and five touchdowns in his past four games, drawing 30 targets during that span, and that's despite Hines Ward being healthy enough to play in each of the past three. Holmes kicked off the 2007 season with 12 fantasy points against these Browns, and in his career against them, he has 11 catches for 211 yards and two scores in three contests. Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals (DET, 5.5): He has faced these Lions twice since 2004, each time topping 100 total yards, so don't get too cozy with your expectations from that Detroit defense. It's still one of the league's weaker units, a beneficiary of battling ice-cold backs like Cedric Benson and Travis Henry the past two weeks. James tends to run more effectively at home; he has a touchdown in each of his past five home contests. Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens (CIN, 6.2): Check his status, as there's a small chance the concussion he suffered this past Monday night might limit or sideline him. If his practice reports continue to look good, though, as they did Wednesday, McGahee couldn't ask for a much better matchup. The Bengals have allowed 336 yards and two touchdowns on the ground the past two weeks, with their opponents averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
Sleepers
Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders (CHI, 4.6 price tag): The Bears might still have this reputation as a brutal matchup for opponents, but their banged-up defense has been rather ordinary the past four weeks. During that span, they've allowed 155.8 yards per game, 5.4 yards per carry and five scores on the ground. Fargas, meanwhile, is averaging 5.4 carries this season and is coming off a 104-yard, 1-score effort in his first start of the year. Priest Holmes, RB, Chiefs (DEN, 4.5): Herm Edwards claims Holmes might get around 15 touches in his first start since Oct. 30, 2005, but looking at the matchup, that's more than enough for him to be a useful fantasy option. The Broncos rank dead last against the run (161.5 ypg), and he has nine touchdowns in eight career games against them. Holmes has plenty to prove, too, having worked so hard at this comeback attempt. J.P. Losman, QB, Bills (@MIA, 5.3): With the Losman-Evans connection looking as strong today as ever, it's not a terrible gamble to dig deep for Losman, facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed 15 passing touchdowns, third-most in the NFL. There are better choices, sure, but Miami has been ravaged by injuries on defense. In addition, Losman has four touchdown passes in his past two games at Dolphin Stadium.
Matchups I'd Avoid
Bernard Berrian, WR, Bears (@OAK, 4.5 price tag): This one is more of a knock on the quarterback than Berrian himself, but when the matchup plays against Brian Griese's favor, it's only natural that his best big-play threat is a weak fantasy option as well. Opponents know the best way to attack the Raiders is on the ground; that's why they rank fourth with 179.0 passing yards per game allowed. Expect another quiet day. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (DEN, 4.8): Hamstring problems held him back in Week 9, leading to a no-catch outing against the Packers, and chances are he might not be fully himself in time for Sunday. Besides, Bowe has cooled considerably of late, with only 11 catches for 200 yards and no scores in his past three healthy games. Now he'll have to contend with the Broncos cornerbacks, Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly. Brian Griese, QB, Bears (@OAK, 6.4): Again, teams generally experience better success running the ball against the Raiders than throwing it, and besides, Oakland is the sixth-ranked team in the NFL in interceptions (11), despite allowing 27.1 pass attempts per game. Griese is a mistake-prone, erratic quarterback, one who has totaled 10 interceptions and 12 sacks in five starts. That's far too risky a track record to trust here. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals (@BAL, 5.2): The Bengals will tell you he's back, and he's healthy, but I won't call him officially back, not for as long as he's averaging 1.2 yards per carry, as he did in Week 9, or sharing carries with Kenny Watson, who has far outperformed him since Week 3. More troubling numbers: Johnson has averaged 56.5 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry in 10 career starts against the Ravens. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (@TEN, 5.5): It was a Week 1 home game against these same Titans that spawned Jones-Drew's uninspiring start to the season; he managed 60 total yards to kick off a three-game span in which he totaled a measly nine fantasy points. Today, the Titans find themselves ranked first against the run (66.0 ypg), which is a bad matchup for a guy averaging 10.3 carries per game this season. Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns (@PIT, 5.2): His four-touchdown outburst in Week 9 will instill a "no fear" kind of approach to this matchup in some fantasy owners' minds, but a 20-carry, 37-yard (1.9 average) performance with that many scores is the epitome of the phrase "fluke outing." More relevant is that the Steelers held him to 35 rushing yards in Week 1. Pittsburgh's run D ranks fourth (76.0 ypg), so expect a letdown. Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles (@WAS): The Eagles' lackluster receiving weapons hurt McNabb's fantasy potential, as in the past four weeks, facing mostly cakewalk matchups, he averaged a mere 13.3 fantasy points and totaled four passing touchdowns. Now he gets the Redskins, who held him to 240 yards and no scores in Week 2, and have held all their opponents to nine passing scores in eight games on the season.
The "Big Guns" to Avoid
They rank among the 10 most expensive at their respective positions, and the matchup dictates you'd be better off spending the money elsewhere. Derek Anderson, QB, Browns (@PIT, 6.8 price tag): I'm happily on the Anderson bandwagon, and in most every other remaining matchup I see, I can't say I dislike him. This week, though, is the exception. The Steelers are vicious defending the pass, allowing a league-best 161.8 yards per game and ranking second with 25 sacks. It's not that Anderson should offer a disastrous stat line, it's just that he has a very low ceiling for this week.
Have No Fear
Their matchups might not look good, but you shouldn't be worried. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Bengals (@BAL, 6.6): Sure, the Ravens say they'll have both Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle back, but I'll believe it when I see it. Besides, even if one or both returns, Houshmandzadeh has 53 catches for 717 yards and five scores in his past seven games against the Ravens. Plus, with Chad Johnson coming off a neck injury, "Housh" should be the main man in the passing game. Again. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (@GB, 6.2): The Packers actually do a pretty respectable job defending the run, ranking eighth (93.8 ypg), but remember, the Chargers, Peterson's Week 9 opponent, came into that game ranked seventh against the run (88.9 ypg). Now San Diego ranks 22nd (125.0). All it takes is one mistake, one small opening, one blink of an eye for Peterson to take off, even against a stout run defense.
Tristan's Gridiron Challenge Lineup: Week 10

Week 9 Recap: Go Bills! OK, so I was a one-week bandwagon hopper riding a 25-point day from Marshawn Lynch and a 22-point effort from Lee Evans, but you know what? I'm sticking with 'em both, since they draw the Dolphins this week and are locked in at a combined 0.7 cheaper than their market values entering Week 10. Hey, like I always say, ride the hot streak; similarly, I wish I had hopped on the Tom Brady bandwagon early, like so many of our most successful Gridiron Challenge teams seem to have done. Guys like me, you've got to pick and choose the matchups instead, not that that's a bad option. After all, it worked out fine with Matt Hasselbeck (21) in Week 9. Score: 119 points in Week 9, 899 points for the season (63.3 percent).

QB1: Drew Brees, Saints (STL, 7.2 price tag)
QB2: Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks (SF, 7.0)
RB1: Reggie Bush, Saints (STL, 6.0)
RB2: Marshawn Lynch, Bills (@MIA, 6.0)
WR1: Santonio Holmes, Steelers (CLE, 5.6)
WR2: Lee Evans, Bills (@MIA, 5.0)
TE: Heath Miller, Steelers (CLE, 4.4)
K: Matt Stover, Ravens (CIN, 4.4)
D/ST: Kansas City Chiefs (DEN, 5.3)

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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